俄罗斯外交被指工作一团糟
It seems only yesterday that President Vladimir Putin seized the world’s attention with his proposal to put Syria’s chemical weapons under international control. To many, the fancy footwork had a clear message: Russia was back in the diplomatic big league at last.俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)因为提议让叙利亚的置于国际控制之下而引起全球关注，似乎只是昨天才发生的事。对于很多人来说，这个花哨的动作释放了一个明显的信号：俄罗斯终于回归了外交大国地位。
We can see now what all the headlines briefly obscured. Since Mr Putin regained the presidency last year, his foreign policy has foundered. Russia has not faced such a serious need to rethink its role in the world for more than a quarter century.
现在我们可以看到那些头条新闻都短暂遮盖了什么。自从去年普京重新当选总统以来，他的外交政策一直没有起色。逾四分之一世纪以来，俄罗斯没有像现在这样迫切需要反思其在世界上的角色。
Start with Europe. For the past decade, Moscow avoided conflict in relations with the EU by staying on good terms with Germany. No more. Whether the issue is energy pricing or gay rights, Berlin is now one of Mr Putin’s foremost critics. Russian trade tactics – such as a recent threat to ban Dutch tulips as unsafe – make enemies across the continent.
从欧洲说起。过去十年里，俄罗斯通过与德国保持良好关系，避免了与欧盟的冲突。但局面已不再是这样。无论是能源定价还是同性恋权利问题，如今德国都是普京最严厉的批评者之一。俄罗斯的贸易策略（比如最近以不安全为由威胁禁止进口荷兰郁金香）在欧洲大陆普遍树敌。
Belligerence has antagonised former Soviet neighbours, too. To thwart Ukraine’s and Moldova’s interest in closer ties with the EU, Moscow has warned that it may block their goods from entering Russia. In September it started a similar quarrel with Belarus; last month, with Lithuania. Mr Putin, it seems, will pick a fight with anyone.
好斗姿态也得罪了与俄罗斯相邻的前苏联加盟共和国。为了挫败乌克兰和摩尔多瓦强化与欧盟的联系，莫斯科警告，可能会禁止他们的商品进入俄罗斯。9月份，莫斯科与白俄罗斯发生了类似的争端，10月份则是与立陶宛。普京似乎要与所有人打一架。
Russia’s influence in the Middle East is also declining. Almost three years into the Arab spring, it is on worse terms with nearly all the region’s states. Seen from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, Jordan, Israel and Egypt, Moscow’s support for Iran promotes instability. And Russian backing for Syria’s regime evokes genuine anger.
俄罗斯在中东的影响力也在下降。“阿拉伯之春”爆发近三年来，俄罗斯与该地区几乎所有国家关系恶化。在土耳其、沙特阿拉伯、海湾国家、约旦、以色列和埃及看来，俄罗斯对的支持加剧了地区不稳定。同时，俄罗斯对叙利亚的支持引起了真正的愤怒。
Relations with the US show the same pattern. President Barack Obama cancelled his Labor day summit with Mr Putin because it promised no results. Yes, Russia’s granting of asylum to Edward Snowden, the National Security Agency contractor turned whistleblower, annoyed the US. But the summit was scratched because there was so little to justify it.
与的关系也展现出同样的格局。巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)取消了北美劳动节那天与普京的会晤，因为不会有什么结果。没错，俄罗斯为国家安全局(NSA)前合同工、泄密者爱德华?斯诺登(Edward Snowden)提供庇护让恼怒。但此次峰会被取消是因为几乎没什么事可谈。
Some experts point out that Mr Putin has at least improved ties with China. This achievement is far less significant than it should be, however. Imagine how the US would feel in the same position. When you have good relations only with China, you have nowhere else to turn. Russians are as uneasy about China’s rise as Americans – maybe more so. But they are facing it alone.
一些专家指出，普京至少改善了与中国的关系，但这一成就的意义远远小于其应该达到的水平。想象一下，在同样的处境会有什么样的感受？当一个国家只与中国交好时，该国就难以找到别的朋友。对于中国的崛起，俄罗斯人与人同样感到不安，也许程度更深。但他们在单独面对这个大趋势。
Mr Putin may reckon others will eventually yield to his pressure. But his strategy is clearly not working. The response of most governments is outrage and resistance. Many think they can stand up to Moscow because its leverage is declining. Upheaval in global energy markets – especially the shale gas revolution – is one reason. The dramatic drop in Russian economic growth this year further saps Russian influence.
普京可能在盘算，其他人最终将向他的压力屈服。但显然他的战略并不奏效。多数国家政府的反应是愤怒和抵制。很多国家认为他们可以站起来对莫斯科说不，因为俄罗斯的势力正在减弱。全球能源市场的剧变（特别是页岩气革命）是一个原因。今年俄罗斯经济增长急剧放缓，进一步削弱了俄罗斯的影响力。
And although it threatens a trade war, Moscow ignores the fact that many of its neighbours have already redirected their exports to the EU. Russia’s diplomatic tools are weaker in other areas, too. For years, Moscow found a middle route in the stand-off between the US and Iran. Now, with Washington and Tehran in wary contact, Russia’s influence with both will decline.
尽管俄罗斯威胁要打一场，但它忽视了一个事实：它的很多邻国已经将出口转向欧盟。俄罗斯在其他领域的外交工具也有所弱化。多年来，俄罗斯在和之间的对峙中找到一条中间路线。现在，随着华盛顿和德黑兰在谨慎接触，俄罗斯对二者的影响力都将下降。
A record this poor ought to be a problem for Mr Putin. Yet it is rarely criticised. The public seems to like his bristly nationalism. The president has mounted an intense domestic propaganda campaign to portray his Syria moves as a huge success. Disputing this claim – much less suggesting that the rest of his policy is going nowhere – only invites retribution.
如此糟糕的表现，对于普京来说应该是个问题。但这种表现很少受到批评。公众似乎喜欢他这种生硬的民族主义。普京发起了一场强势的国内宣传活动，将他在叙利亚问题上采取的主动渲染为一个巨大成功。质疑这种说法（更别提认为他的其他政策一筹莫展了）只会招致惩处。
Even many of Mr Putin’s critics seem to think that attacking his international record is not the best way to challenge him. Better to focus on economic, political or legal reform – issues on which he may be more vulnerable. When Russia starts to change, I have been told, foreign policy will take care of itself.
就连普京的很多批评者似乎也认为，攻击他的外交作为并不是挑战他的最佳方式。最好聚焦于经济、或者立法改革等问题，因为他在这些方面可能更加脆弱。有人告诉我，当俄罗斯开始改变的时候，外交政策会自然而然地出现起色。
Right or wrong, these answers testify to the timidity of Russia’s foreign policy establishment, its intellectual and business elite and its political opposition. Yet it is hard to believe the nation will long be satisfied with the path he has put it on. Current policy produces too little benefit for anyone. A more fundamental course correction – no easy undertaking in any country – is inevitable.
不管是对是错，这样的答案证明俄罗斯外交政策体制、知识分子和商界精英以及的怯懦。然而，我们很难想象，这个国家会长期满足于普京所选择的道路。当前政策几乎没有给任何人带来明显利好。一种更为根本的道路纠正是不可避免的。对于任何国家来说，这都不是一项轻而易举的事业。
Can the rest of us do anything to hasten a Russian reassessment?
那么外界能否为加速俄罗斯的重新评估做点贡献呢？
Anti-Putin crusading will not help much; to many Russians, it simply confirms he is doing the right thing. But conciliation is not the right response either; it too suggests he is getting results. What Russian policy makers and experts alike should hear from Europe and the US – a message delivered more in sorrow than in anger – is that their foreign policy has gone way off track. Until it rights itself, Russia will have less and less global influence.
反对普京的运动不会有多大帮助。对于很多俄罗斯人来说，这只能证明他做对了。但顺从也不是正确的回应，因为这将表明他有所作为。欧洲和应该以遗憾（而非愤怒）的语气告诉俄罗斯政策制定者和专家，他们的外交政策严重脱轨。只要俄罗斯不自我纠正，其全球影响力就会越来越小。
The old remark about Britain in the 1960s – that it had lost an empire but not yet found a role – captures Moscow’s predicament exactly. More than 20 years after the Soviet collapse, Russians have to think this problem through for themselves. Mr Putin, unfortunately, keeps putting the answer out of reach.
对上世纪60年代英国的描述（它已失去一个帝国，但还没有找到新的角色）非常适合现在的俄罗斯。苏联解体20多年后，俄罗斯人必须自己想清楚这个问题。不幸的是，普京在不断地推开答案。